Tag Archives: Harare

We Don’t Need Another Hero.

it’s been a phenomenal two weeks in the country of my birth, Zimbabwe. The events of the last fourteen days across the country have caught everyone unawares. From the initial demonstrations at Beitbridge border post on June 20th when SI 64 was first implemented to the burning of the customs warehouse and closure of the Zimbabwe and South Africa border for the first time in over a century, media and government were at a loss to explain what had changed in the mood of the country. Little did they know more was to come.

Hardly two days after relative order was restored at Beitbridge, Monday saw running battles between police and Kombi drivers across parts of Harare as the latter went on strike in protest against traffic police corruption. Police deployed their standard tactics only to be met by an emboldened resistance that saw reports of them being beaten back by enraged protestors. As the day went on pictures emerged of excessive police force along with increasingly violent resistance.

In response to the burning of the Beitbridge customs warehouse, Minister of State Security Kembo Mohadi, who is from Beitbridge, exclaimed:

“We are very much disturbed. Why should the South African businesspeople try to influence our policy formulation? They have their own laws and we don’t meddle. It is sad that they chose to mobilise our people against the Government. The burning of tyres during demonstrations is foreign to us and we suspect a third hand is involved in the chaos that rocked Beitbridge town on Friday,” 

Mohadi also blamed the police for being unprepared leading to the army having to be called in. The police, for their part, have been consistent in  cracking down viciously at any sign of protest but have at times appeared at a loss when confronted by protestors who are not scared of them anymore. Instead, they have now started to look for the ringleaders of these protests, another old policing tactic.

Now whilst the police and government try to get control of the situation the media have been excitedly keeping the world informed and as is their nature, trying to find that unique angle to differentiate their coverage from that of the competition. The irony is, many are as confused about this new wave of resistance as the state, and like the state, have resorted to classic theories to explain what is going on. In this effort, they have identified an ideal leader who fits the desired profile in a Harare pastor, Evan Mawarire.

Mawarire has risen to prominence over the last few months after a series of Facebook videos of him venting his frustration at the state of the country resonated with fellow Zimbabweans inspiring others to share their stories of frustration. His use of social media to galvanise people has been nothing short of phenomenal and he has attracted other equally talented and frustrated Zimbabweans to his cause under what has come to be known as the #ThisFlag citizens movement. Collectively they called for a stay-away on Wednesday 06 July which saw the country come to a virtual standstill and protestors in running battles with the police in Harare and Bulawayo. Following on this they have published a list of demands and are threatening a second stay-away next week.

#ThisFlag is now the ideal one-stop-shop for publishers looking for a ready-made media package for anyone wanting to know what’s going on in Zimbabwe today and its all here on social media, or so some local and international media would have us believe. It is at this point that I become wary. The last week has seen all sorts of people claiming credit or being assigned blame for what has in reality been a collective effort who’s time has come. The MDC-T’s Obert Gutu was quick off the mark after Wednesday’s stay-away to claim that this was only possible because of them, an act that was roundly condemned across social, digital and print media.

Now that the dust has settled, the state and media alike, are looking for ringleaders of the protests, albeit for different reasons. The state so they can put an end to the protests, the media so they can find new heroes and villains to replace the tired characters of the seemingly eternal Zimbabwean political soap opera. Why shouldn’t they? This formula has worked marvellously for both of them in the past. Only problem is, this time around what’s happening in Zimbabwe does not fit this mould. This is popular resistance against a political system that has failed Zimbabweans for too long and now seeks to starve them. I don’t know where started but it certainly was not on social media and it certainly was not on July 01, Zimbabweans have been frustrated a damn long time and have been using various means to just get by in spite of a state that has continued to make life harder for them.

Recent moves by the state, notably the introduction of bond notes and S I 64 have been the most brazen of a number of unpopular moves going back as far as 2000 or even 1980, depending on who you speak to. All these own goals have seen Zimbabweans from all walks of life saying they have had enough, from advocates to vendors to taxi-drivers to pastors to journalists to students. Every Zimbabwean who is not benefiting directly from the patronage system that is our government today has had enough and are finding means of expression, no matter where they are. In Bulawayo youths who I saw growing up were arrested for demanding Mugabe must go on Wednesday, they are out on $40 bail each. A few weeks ago a woman wrote of how she lost her child to an inept health care system. Two people who have been creating platforms for Zimbabweans to communicate with and develop each other tweeted about how they were interviewed by the police about their activities in the same week. People are sharing their dissatisfaction with the state and they all need to be heard, to position some as heroes this early in the night is to set us all up for failure. We are all important and we all deserve support.

The world wants to tell us social media has become a new frontier in the battle for a normal life in Zimbabwe and in response the state has threatened to control social media, even allegedly disrupting the internet during Wednesday’s stay-away. Barring social media or the internet entirely will not put food in peoples’ bellies or bring back lost children. It won’t restore the tens of thousands of jobs lost annually, let alone the millions ZANU promised during the 2013 elections. Employees are only as loyal as their last paycheque and in Zimbabwe regular paycheques have become increasingly rare. As the state & media look for heroes and villains a country demands a return to normalcy so they don’t have to ever again read in a WhatsApp message about a relative dying in a hospital because there was no water.

We don’t need another hero in Zimbabwe, our history is riddled with them and since 1980 their legacies have been used to control and cajole us. We need all our stories to be told and a responsible government that values the life of every citizen.

Of Carts And Donkeys: Why it is wrong to think exports will restore and sustain Zimbabwe’s economy.

Unlike the chicken and egg riddle, in economics, there is no question that a strong domestic economy is always the basis from which strong exports are built. This is why it remains a wonder to me that every other day there is talk of how Zimbabwe’s exporters need to ramp up production and take advantage of international markets. At the same time the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mike Bimha, is telling any foreigner who will listen that Zimbabwe is open for business with a vibrant domestic market. A few weeks ago Minister Bimha reportedly went as far as to invite a South African business delegation to take advantage of the current jobs bloodbath and set up shop in Zimbabwe because local industry is practically stalled. So local producers must export whilst the domestic market is serviced by foreign firms who come in and produce? How does this work? This is the same thinking with the Look East policy that has seen Chinese firms benefiting from generous investment initiatives going back at least a decade with no reciprocation. It is now clear there was never any incentive for the Chinese to do so to begin with because Zimbabwe did not negotiate a trade deal, they simply gave the family jewels away.

What Zimbabwe needs to do is focus on deepening the local economy, a Marshall Plan, if you will. The first step is to restore trust in the government, nobody puts in a country where those who run it cannot be trusted to honour their commitments unless they themselves are not trustworthy. Next would be to restore local industrial capacity to supply the domestic market by investing in base infrastructure such as roads, rail, electricity, education, telecommunications, health and housing. This can only be done once Zimbabwe becomes a viable investment destination, a factor largely determined by the level of government’s trustworthiness. For too long Zimbabwe has tried to sell itself as primarily a source of raw materials and a conduit to the continent with the domestic economy treated as ancillary to that. The central location of Zimbabwe previously made it ideal for channeling southern and central Africa’s produce to the ports of South Africa and Mozambique and imports up north. Any benefit falling to the local economy was more of mere consequence rather than actual intent. This is Zimbabwe’s colonial legacy, it is still strong and highly evident in the trade language of today’s government. But there is hope.

It is notable that barely days after President Mugabe gave his surprisingly brief State Of The Nation Address parliament is seized with passing a raft of laws aimed at creating a more investment friendly environment. Needless to say, last week’s visit by Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote and the announcement of his intent to invest in Zimbabwe could not be coincidental. This has been borne out in various news stories of the behind the scenes negotiations culminating in last Monday’s whirlwind visit. The local broadcaster had hardly scrambled together their usual analysts and Dangote had already left Harare. Since then cabinet has approved all of Dangote’s projects, though I am not sure what that means as no plans have yet been presented to them, let alone drawn up. Meanwhile the Zimbabwe Investment Authority’s Nigel Chanakira has said they will not be found wanting when the time for issuing all necessary investment permits comes.

Whist I have many questions about what this deal means for how Zimbabwe conducts business I am cautiously optimistic. I am hoping government may just have finally painted themselves into a corner such that they have no room to mess this up as they have done countless times before. Another reason to like this deal is that it is totally about local capacity building to cater for Zimbabweans. The coal will be mined locally for domestic power generation to feed a cement plant that will primarily supply the local market. It is now to wait and see how local businesses are going to compliment these developments and thus deepen the economic multiplier effect.

This is what it means to put the domestic economy first. It is not prone to the whims of export markets and fancies of international commodity brokers. The more integrated the domestic economy, the better it will carry a country through any international crises. It is the donkey that will pull the proverbial cart and it must be fed. If such efforts can be replicated across other industrial sectors over the next ten years there is hope yet to see a Zimbabwe restored to it’s rightful economic status in our lifetime.

Closing Zimbabwe’s Digital Divide

Recently I spent time in Harare Zimbabwe where I had been invited by  TBWA Zimbabwe to speak at the Digital Marketing Conference alongside Zimbabwe’s leading voices in digital marketing and content development cohosted by TECHZiM. One of the highlights for me was participating in a panel discussion on Bottlenecks in Digital Marketing which you can watch here.

Some of the key takeouts from the conference for me are that:

  • Zimbabwe has a wealth of digital minds across all forms of media, from broadcasting to publishing to content creation and so much more.
  • Zimbabwe’s legislators are woefully out of touch with what is happening and this needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency.
  • Our industrialists, the country’s economic engine, are not yet ready to adopt digital marketing and this was exemplified by their absence.

I was surprised that none of the financial services sector, miners, pharmaceuticals, agri-processors, motor industry, farmers, transport sector amongst others were in attendance. This is not bad news at all as it gives a clear indication of the amount of work those in digital media need to do to educate mainstream industry so we bring them onboard. I say “we” because this is an opportunity for all digital minds to capitalise on.

That said, there are a few long established companies that are leading the digital charge and hopefully through their efforts, others will follow. Most notable amongst these is the state-owned publisher, Zimpapers led by their Chief Technology Officer, Darlick Marandure. Just the fact that Zimpapers has a CTO is cause for pause, I don’t know of any other non-telecoms company that has such a post.

Much talk was made of how to monetise your content and whilst Youtube’s content partnerships lead Teju Ajani was extremely popular, it is the local market for digital content that I believe needs to first be harnessed. If digital content developers cannot sell their product to the local market first they then have the uphill task of competing on the international market against literally millions of competitors.

The first Zimbabwean company to pay well for online content will be the one that really defines Zimbabwe’s digital future. Who that will be one can only guess but the more such conferences that are held, the sooner this day will come. In the meantime, the quality of content coming out of Zimbabwe’s digital space keeps getting better and one can only be impressed by this considering the myriad of challenges developers face that are unique to the country.

The Kansas City Shuffle

The Kansas City Shuffle is a confidence trick or con. The perpetrator creates a big enough diversion to distract their intended target so they can can carry out their mission. To pull off  a proper Kansas City Shuffle though, you need a body, a dead body.

Yesterday Zimbabwe watchers were shocked at the televised assassination of (the character of) Miss Lindiwe Zulu by South African Presidential spokesperson Mac Maharaj. It was the proverbial accident in slow-motion you just can’t turn your eyes away from.

For those who do not know, Miss Zulu is President Jacob Zuma’s  international relations advisor and representative on the SADC facilitation team mandated to oversee the implementation of the 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA), the founding document of the current political dispensation in Zimbabwe.

At the signing of the GPA Zimbabwe’s three leading political parties, through their principals, appointed chief negotiators who would represent their party interests in the GPA implementation process with South Africa as the facilitator. When Jacob Zuma became President of South Africa in 2009 he became the SADC facilitator and as is his right, assembled a team to represent him in the facilitation process, enter career diplomat Miss Zulu, already a senior member of the African National Congress, who by all accounts I have read, is well respected and liked.

As was to be expected the facilitation team have been lambasted from time to time by the parties but events and statements of the last two to three weeks escalated beyond expectations. It started with President Mugabe making a thinly veiled and insulting personal reference to Miss Zulu during a campaign speech. It was on a Friday so the weekend papers went into a frenzy over the statements. In an interview on Radio 702 the  following week Miss Zulu brushed the statements aside as a distraction from the work that was being done in Zimbabwe.

Miss Zulu continued to make statements on the situation in Zimbabwe on, we all believed, behalf of the SADC facilitation team and President Zuma. This did not please President Mugabe who on Friday, took aim at her again and in statements attributed to him asked for her to “just shut up” about Zimbabwe as she did not have a mandate to speak on the country. He went on to say only President Zuma could speak on Zimbabwe as far as the facilitation process was concerned.

On Saturday there were reports, to be denied the following day,  that President Zuma had warned President Mugabe to tone down his rhetoric as this could jeopardise SA-Zimbabwe relations in particular and SADC in general. The world went to sleep thinking all was well and balance had been restored to the universe but this was not to be.

On Sunday President Zuma issued a statement through his spokesman Mac Maharaj which effectively backed President Mugabe and apologised for Miss Zulu’s “unfortunate” statements regarding Zimbabwe’s readiness to hold elections. Being a watcher of South African politics I am used to Mac Maharaj coming out swinging as the Presidential hatchet-man but this was a shock and deeply disturbing. President Zuma’s spokesman followed this up with interviews on various news channels to make sure the message was well and truly heard. South Africa and by extension SADC, had capitulated to President Mugabe’s Zanu PF and offered up a sacrifice. It doesn’t help matters that there have been rumours for months that President Mugabe wanted Miss Zulu gone and even an unsubstantiated claim of an assassination plot. Could this be the endgame? ZANU PF showing that the entire SADC region dare not come up against it? The timing is indeed fortuitous for ZANU seeing as Zimbabwe is in the middle of an election campaign, suffice to say, time will tell.

However, assuming that Presidents Zuma and Mugabe are right in their assertions, a few questions come to mind.

If it is correct that it was not Miss Zulu’s place to make statements on behalf of the facilitation team since her appointment, why is it only being made clear now? She has been speaking on Zimbabwe for years.

If Patrick Chinamasa and Tendai Biti as chief negotiators for ZANU PF and MDC T respectively, can make statements on behalf of their principals and parties regarding the GPA why is Miss Zulu not extended the same privilege? It would be interesting to see Miss Zulu’s letter of appointment and terms of reference.

In the meantime the SA Presidency’s statement has touched off a firestorm on social networks with some questioning President Zuma’s support of women’s professional advancement,  in particular those who serve in or on behalf of his government.

I have little doubt Miss Zulu will come back from this, it’s the nature of politics, luckily for her, the GPA has run it’s faltering course and in less than two weeks Zimbabwe will, for good or bad, have a new political dispensation. Hopefully the era of political character assassinations will no longer be a hallmark of Zimbabwean politics.

Below are relevant links: 

South Africa regrets unauthorised statements on Zimbabwe http://bit.ly/129bs0s 

http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/Mugabe-urges-Zuma-to-silence-advisor-20130720

Why Zimbabwe doesn’t need loans and aid.

President Mugabe and Justice Minister Chinamasa are right, Zimbabwe does not need donors to fund the upcoming elections. In fact, Zimbabwe should not need ANY financial aid whatsoever.
Much was made of Minister Tendai Biti’s statement in April 2013 that South Africa was about to release Balance of Payments (BOP) support for Zimbabwe to the tune of $100 million, as we all now know, this only succeeded in embarrassing his opposite number Pravin Ghordan and both governments. Following the ensuing media storm, no money came and the country continues to live from hand to mouth. Months later not only does Zimbabwe still not have BOP support but the government has also spurned election support from the United Nations and the politicians are again haggling over election dates causing much anxiety in the country and the Southern African region. In all of this the question of how these elections are to be funded has not been answered and every time a solution seems to have been found it slips from the nation’s collective grasp. But is aid really the only option?

Externalization

It is common cause that since independence in 1980 Zimbabwe has suffered undocumented capital flight running into potentially billions of Us dollars. In 2004 this practice came to be known as externalization and examples of this include:

  • Transfer pricing in the 1980s and 1990s whereby manufacturers exported goods cheaply then imported the same goods back into Zimbabwe at hugely inflated prices.
  • Under-pricing of exports only to sell them at their proper price once off-shore and the bulk of the money kept out of Zimbabwe.
  • Blatant smuggling of precious and unprocessed minerals to avoid declaring them as exports thereby not remitting the subsequent proceeds.
  • Banking malpractice that peaked in 2003 but continues unabated today including but not limited to manipulation of exchange control regulations.

Under Reserve Bank Governor Leonard Tsumba, 1993-2003, the country began to see the effects of externalization, this peaked in 2000-2003 with the liberalisation of the financial services sector, particularly banking,  typified by the rapid unchecked growth of indigenous players. Upon his retirement Dr. Tsumba was replaced temporarily by Charles Chikaura in an acting capacity until the appointment of  Dr. Gideon Gono in late 2003. On his appointment by President Mugabe Dr. Gono promised to clean up the financial sector which by then was widely perceived as the catalyst of Zimbabwe’s economic downturn. Dr. Gono’s initiative led to five years of sensational arrests, escapes, international chases, court cases, asset seizures and more with the list of suspects including many of the country’s business leaders at the time. Some of the accused even chose self-imposed exile to escape prosecution leading to failed requests for extradition by the RBZ through the police’s Serious Economic Offences Unit. By 2008 though the whole exercise had fizzled out into nothingness amid presidential pardons and the pressure of legal challenges on constitutional grounds. Though some of the cases are still ongoing, little of the plundered wealth has been recovered.

The dollarization of the Zimbabwean economy that followed the signing of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) in late 2008 was the catalyst for the recovery of the economy and this was strengthened by promises of financial support from all SADC nations in 2009. Despite much fanfare and a number of false starts, nothing of substance has been forthcoming and Zimbabwe’s recovery has been predominantly domestically driven and has predictably, stalled.

Illicit Capital Flight In Perspective

Considering that it is reasonably suspected that there are hundreds of millions possibly billions of dollars that have been siphoned out of Zimbabwe sitting in foreign bank accounts, the mind boggles that the Ministry of Finance is not actively engaging foreign governments and banks to institute legal proceedings against the account holders in an attempt to recover these funds. Only in 2013 did a bill go before parliament with the express purpose of tackling externalization. The Microfinance Bill is yet to be signed into law but only seeks to attach assets domiciled in Zimbabwe. It is unclear how far back the act can be enforced once signed into law thought the RBZ and the Ministry of Finance have said that as at February 2013 exporters had not repatriated $360 million. As at today it is unclear what measures either institution has taken to ensure the repatriation of these funds. In 2008 the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts Amherst published a report on capital flight from forty sub-Saharan Africa in the period 1970-2004 by Zimbabwe is estimated to have lost $16 162 000 000,00. For the full report go to http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP166.pdf.

New International Best Practice

Recently the Lybian Transitional Authority has made global headlines in its attempts to recover tens billions of dollars funnelled out of the country by the previous administration. Particular emphasis has been on South Africa which has acknowledged the existence of such investments and indicated its willingness to repatriate the funds despite their scale not having been finalised. In Zimbabwe it is unclear if the Microfinance Bill will make provision for such action by the Ministry of Finance and if so, how the Ministry will be capacitated as it is yet to be signed into law. If the government were serious about recovering externalised funds they would have speedily enacted this Bill in 2009 and by now the nation would surely have seen results. It is an indictment on the government and the finance ministry in particular that it is not known how much the country is losing annually to externalization and no effective measures have been instituted to recover what has already left or to stop the bleeding. Kofi Anan and the president of the African Development Bank Donald Kaberuka have both come out strongly against capital flight from Africa fuelled by corruption and fraud. With institutions like the AfDB willing to assist in recovering illicit capital transfers to their rightful states and the precedent set by South Africa in the Lybian case, what is Minister Biti waiting for?

Zimbabwe’s diaspora question and it’s economic colonisation.

A little spoken about part of our history is that the story of the Zimbabwean Diaspora is as old as the country itself. Members of our first government, including the chief architect of our first constitution the late Edson Zvobgo, spent much time abroad. Members of my family studied for years abroad returning home after 1981. Diasporans were a big part of the establishment of the society that we came to know as Zimbabwe especially in healthcare, education and policy formulation. The country welcomed back her educated sons and daughters and the rest is, well, history.

In 2000 we saw the beginning of the culmination of a number of bad governance decisions which led to the first significant wave of Zimbabweans leaving the country for elsewhere. Without verifiable statistics, it is still not known how many Zimbabweans have since emigrated or the nature of the migration trends. What is verifiable though, is that the relationship between Zimbabweans at home and abroad has, at times, been strained in large part due to the economic effects of what has come to be known as “Zimbabwe’s Lost Decade” from 2000 to 2010. During that period many Diasporans sent remittances home to relatives saving many, many lives. Today numerous families continue to receive remittances from abroad, allowing them a better quality of life. Diasporans also invested in the economy through building homes and establishing businesses. Given all this, I believe that some perspective is needed, we must differentiate between family obligations and suggestions of unacknowledged economic patriotism.

Jump to today and read posts on sites such as swradioafrica.com, newsdzezimbabwe.co.uk, thezimbabwean.co.uk and nehandaradio.com you can be forgiven for concluding Zimbabwe and it’s government, are solely reliant on diaspora remittances. Recently an article, typical of such reporting, by Tanonoka Joseph Wande appeared on SW Radio Africa’s site entitled “Zimbabwe must give better recognition to those in Diaspora”. I take issue with this position because whilst it is indisputable that remittances have saved lives for over a decade, it is not unreasonable to assume that the bulk of this money has gone into consumptive expenditure such as food, accommodation, health, clothing and transport. Who would not help their family if they were in a position to do so? Taking care of ones’ family by sending money home is no different from anyone in Norton, Harare, Bulawayo or Filabusi earning a paycheck to do the same. The suggestion that diaspora remittances and the remitters are more Zimbabwean, deserving greater recognition than those at home is simply ridiculous. Today’s Diasporans take care of their families just as everyone else does every single day, is the fact that those relatives are alive and well not recognition enough for their efforts? What is this sense of entitlement and what exactly is it that they feel entitled to? I have a theory that goes back a few years.

In 2006 Zimbabwe’s Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono was at the height of his powers, people even referred to him as our de-facto Prime Minister, a reference he never publicly objected to. In an effort to mobilise foreign currency the Reserve Bank (RBZ) established its subsidiary Homelink targeting Zimbabweans living abroad. Homelink’s mandate was to offer investments, money transfer services, and mortgages to diasporans wanting to build back home, Governor Gono even went as far as to say Diasporans were the country’s greatest export as they earned Zimbabwe foreign currency and the more young people who went abroad the better. Meanwhile, home-based Zimbabweans were not afforded such opportunities and for the majority, holding foreign currency was a serious criminal offence. I wrote to the Governor advising that this preferential treatment of Diasporans could lead to issues with those at home who were bearing the brunt of the economic collapse fuelled by government profligacy and short-sighted, often punitive, government policies, a situation akin to Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities, if you will. I never got a reply and as fate would have it, I was to be proven right.

Gono’s policy of Diaspora appeasement found a face in Professor Arthur Mutambabara when the latter became the leader of the splinter MDC party, a Diasporan came home to lead a political party and went on to become Deputy Prime Minister shortly thereafter. This policy found further political support in the government established under the Global Political Agreement (GPA) of 2008 with all kinds of promises being made to woo Diasporans back home, however, when these promises went unfulfilled the Diaspora was not shy in calling out the politicians involved resulting in some embarrassing incidents. Now we are inundated with constant calls for “the right conditions so we can come home”.

Diasporans often say “if things were right” they would be on the next flight or bus home, question is, what are these “right things” and who do they expect to make them so? I’m inclined to believe these are insincere statements made by people who maybe feel embarrassed that they are better off than those they left behind yet know they are at a loss to do anything about it. The majority of Diasporans have become comfortable in their adopted countries and I say good for them, however, whilst many go about their daily lives there are those who have taken on the mantle to save Zimbabwe from itself. This effort has been predominantly political in nature with little, if any, economic aspects. There is a disconnect between Diasporans and those at home when it comes to how to overcome our many challenges, especially, which challenge to deal with, how and when. Diaspora activists seem to not realise that whilst they may have overcome their own economic challenges, they are at different levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to the many at home who struggle daily for food, accommodation, education, health and work. If Diasporans, as a collective, were serious about participating in the economy, they would have already done much more, it’s not as if they haven’t had over a decade to prepare. Granted there are those who are making efforts to do business at home but without coordinated private sector employment and capacity creation, their efforts will not  result in much of a change.

In my interactions with Zimbabweans who have succeeded abroad, many have little economic interest in Zimbabwe beyond providing for their families still here. They talk of entry-level investments to establish a presence so that when “things come right” they will be able to respond quickly, really? Ask them why or when this will be and they list every possible reason why they can’t invest or raise their children here. Oddly enough, the country and it’s investment climate is good enough for their relatives to live in and also good enough for Chinese, Russian and South African investors as it is. Is it any surprise then that China and South Africa are Zimbabwe’s top investors enjoying numerous incentives whilst we go on ad infinitum about how educated and talented our people are at home and abroad? With all our worldly cleverness why are we yet to see adequate liquidity in our banks to support our private sector? Successful and prosperous Zimbabweans are to be found in probably every functional economy on the planet  yet our own economy lurches from one dismal year to the next.

We have fallen for the myth that our national salvation lies in the Chiyadzwa and Marange diamond fields being mined by the Chinese, South Africans,Russians and faceless locals with little benefit to the nation. Another myth we are fed is that everyone can be a farmer or an entrepreneur or part of an indiginization consortium so they can enjoy the economic fruits of our sovereignty.  With formal unemployment estimated at over 80% it is pure fantasy that the latter measure will work, where will the demand come from? We will promote our exports to the East you say? What happens the day they decide to go shopping elsewhere? Over 70% of South Africa’s highest earners are in executive employment, the same is true of established first world economies, logic would follow that Zimbabwe should focus on sustainable employment creation if it hopes to create wealth,this is where I would expect the Diaspora to come in. What sense is there in having 4000 black tobacco farmers replace 400 whites producing the same volumes and exporting unprocessed leaf to the East? Since 2000 there are now three cigarette manufacturers from one yet most of the leaf is still exported unprocessed. In mining chrome miners lobby government to allow them to export raw chrome as they have failed to build refineries yet a Chinese firm is now in the process of building a number of them around the country. According to the Daily News of 15 October 2012 the country holds 12% of the world’s chromite reserves and accounts for 1,2% of world production down from 5% in 2000. Those Diasporans skilled in mining who can protect and develop this national asset have been found lacking.

Zimbabwe has been reduced to a base agriculture and mining economy with little processing, refining and manufacturing activity or capacity. The services, notably banking, and retail sectors enjoyed a growth spurt after dollarisation in 2009 but this has proved to be unsustainable with more players but no growth in the customer base. This has resulted in cannibalism amongst the retailers and drastic restructuring amongst the banks. There has also been increased participation of foreign players in both sectors,

  • South Africa’s Pickn’Pay now owns 49% of TM Supermarkets and is currently rebranding their major stores,
  • MBCA bank is majority owned by Nedbank South Africa, Premier Bank was bought out and rebranded by a Nigerian bank whilst NMB and Kingdom banks have sold equity to foreigners.

Once more Diasporans are found lacking and again I wonder, what “right things” are they waiting for?

Zimbabweans need to rekindle that spirit of the 1980’s that brought our many talents together except this time, with the benefit of experience gained over the last thirty three years. We need to divest ourselves as a people of the sense of entitlement that has handicapped us the last thirteen years. We believe we are entitled to jobs, electricity, clean water, good schools for our children, good roads, clean air and all that life has to offer, however, belief needs deeds or it remains only an idea. If those in a position to make this happen remain on the sidelines they will wake up one day to find that Zimbabwe’s economy has been completely colonised and they will be strangers in their own land, Diasporans who withhold their money, skills and other resources in protest at a supposed lack of recognition are ill-advised.

Harare property boom or bubble?

Earler today I read an article by Mail & Guardian journalist Jason Moyo about the high end property boom in Harare. This got me thinking, who exactly is Moyo writing for, because from my knowledge of the Zimbabwean economy and its unforgiving ways, the article seemed rather one-sided. What I found strange, amongst other things, was how the fund managers interviewed say they struggle to get information to clients in New York, this you have to take that with more than just a bucket of salt. The fact is the information is there, everywhere but they just can’t package it in a way traditional investors would understand, because they themselves don’t understand what’s going on. Zimbabwe has unique problems and opportunities that defy convention so a fund manager or stockbroker are possibly ill-placed to give a view of what’s actually happening on the ground. Their profession is also synonymous with every stock market crash and property bubble since the first crash and bubble so I tend to take what they say with skepticism. You’re better off talking to property agents, buyers and actual developers. A boom you say? I’d call it a bubble because it is not backed by clear economic and infrastructural fundamentals. As Moyo states in his title, this is being driven by the “Zim diaspora” who, aside from being originally from Zimbabwe are no different from other short term investors (read opportunists) looking for highly profitable areas to park their money. This housing “boom” is not backed by any sustainable upswing in economic activity but on the premise that this upswing is just around the corner. To paraphrase from a scene in Quentin Tarantino’s epic Kill Bill Volume 1, recovery is not a straight path, it is a forest. Diasporans will not save Zimbabwe, if they were going to, they would have done so already, they are investors first, with patriotism not exactly a major priority.
Zimbabwe is currently not making any new millionaires, officially anyway, as growth has been pedestrian the last two years after the initial hype of dollarization and the Global Political Aagreement GPA. Without tangible growth, where are the occupants of the plush new mansions going to come from? These developers are making investment decisions as they already own primary and secondary homes, possibly farms even. Once the buying spree doesn’t kick off as promised, expect a sell-off of note. Another thing is Harare is notorious for its poor water infrastructure, especially in Borrowdale, so how are the developers getting around this? Poor service delivery has added to the costs of residential developments in Borrowdale particularly and Harare in general for many years and has steadily gotten worse. Though this work is currently ongoing, it will take some years still to rectify this situation compounded by the unrelenting urban migration into the Sunshine City.
So a boom? I don’t think so, it will be interesting to see how large this bubble grows before it bursts and who it will take with. I sincerely hope it will deflate before then but if it doesn’t, thankfully this is funded mostly by off-shore money and the burst will have little effect on the national economy as the amount of local resources being allocated to this is minimal.

Here is a link to the Mail & Guardian article: http://mg.co.za/article/2013-04-19-zim-diaspora-drives-property-boom